Kenya's Climate Crisis: Economic Losses Soar, Urgent Action Needed Across Sectors

Op-ed feature by Hakeem Ochola, Student |KCA University.

Design Illustration on Effects of Drought Stress on some aspects of crops 

The year 2020 was marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, which claimed more than 6 million lives globally. This catastrophe was compounded by other disasters such as hurricanes, drought, famine, and in East Africa, a plague of locusts that devastated vegetation across regions. These calamities have triggered global conversations on the intersection of climate change and disaster preparedness.

In Kenya, the locust infestation was foreseeable, given the migratory nature of the pests and their earlier presence in neighboring Ethiopia. As countries pivoted to address the health crisis, climate change issues were often relegated despite their intensifying consequences. Although the pandemic was declared officially over by the World Health Organization on May 4, 2023, the climate crisis remains an existential threat.

Photo Courtesy: National Geographic - Locust infestation.

The Economic Costs Ahead

Estimates suggest that climate change could reduce Kenya’s GDP by up to 2.6% annually by 2030. This is largely due to Kenya’s climate-sensitive economy especially sectors like agriculture, water, energy, tourism, and wildlife. Long-term projections are even grimmer, with significantly higher costs expected beyond 2050 if global temperatures rise unchecked.

Kenya’s strategy must include urgent mitigation and adaptation measures. A 2°C temperature cap can avert the worst consequences. But for this to happen, climate financing must be balanced and comprehensive.

A Skewed Approach to Climate Financing

In 2018, Kenya received Ksh. 243.3 billion (USD 2.4 billion) in climate-related investments, just a third of the required annual funding. Shockingly, 79% of this was funneled toward mitigation, despite Kenya’s declared adaptation focus. Agriculture, forestry, land use, transport, and water management remain underfunded, exposing the nation to long-term risks.

Agriculture: The Most Vulnerable Sector

Agriculture is central to Kenya’s economy, yet over 95% relies on rainfall, leaving it extremely vulnerable to erratic weather. It also contributes 59% of Kenya’s greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock.

Kenya’s agriculture sector shrank by 1.5% in early 2022, heavily impacting GDP. Droughts reduced output in crops and livestock, shrinking key exports like tea and horticulture. As of July 2022, 3.5 million Kenyans were food insecure, a 13% jump from earlier in the year. The World Bank projects yield losses of up to 45% for maize, rice, soybeans, coffee, and tea by 2050, with food prices rising by 75-90% by 2055. Such a trend will disproportionately harm the poor and increase pressure on government social protection programs.

Photo : Effects of Drought on Agriculture 

Health Sector: A Compounding Challenge

Climate change intensifies the spread of infectious diseases. A 2021 Environmental Epidemiology study links rising temperatures to increased disease outbreaks. In 2020/21, Kenya allocated Ksh. 9.2 billion to COVID-19 vaccinations. This amount could have purchased enough Antiretroviral drugs for two years or funded anti-malaria efforts and critical health personnel recruitment.

Additionally, prolonged droughts have driven up child malnutrition, with over 9,500 new acute cases reported in June 2022 alone. This has long-term impacts on education and productivity. According to the National Library of Medicine, the resulting productivity loss was estimated at Ksh. 352 billion (6.5% of GDP).

Towards Climate-Smart Investments

To implement its climate goals between 2020 and 2030, Kenya needs Ksh. 6.78 trillion (USD 65 billion)—equating to Ksh. 677.5 billion annually. Only 35.9% of that was raised in 2018, highlighting the financing gap. While investing in renewable energy is vital, neglecting other sectors like agriculture, health, and transport will jeopardize long-term resilience.

If Kenya adopts a lower-carbon development path, the benefits are immense. Carbon credits can be optimized if mitigation efforts are extended beyond energy into transport and agriculture. Effective collaboration between government, private sector, and civil society is key to unlocking this potential.

In conclusion, Kenya's battle with climate change is far from over. Balanced climate financing, investment in vulnerable sectors, and strategic adaptation are crucial to building a resilient economy. The cost of inaction is already evident—and will only grow.

---

Hakeem Ochola is a Journalism and Digital Media Student at KCA University. Email taylinhakeem@gmail.com

---

Send us your story: editonekenya@gmail.com